10肥料经济学--市场经济下肥料施用的经济学

10肥料经济学--市场经济下肥料施用的经济学

市场经济下肥料施用的经济学MarkD.Stauffer*GavinD.Sulewski**磷研究所高级副总裁、加拿大钾磷研究所总裁*加拿大钾磷研究所农学家**　　前言　　Introduction　　自由市场的经济体系与独立思考的概念是紧密相连的。市场经济参与者以利润为导向，受掌握自身命运需要的驱动。与市场有效控制原理不可分离的是个人寻求稳定的收入。在合适的条件下，这种价值取向会允许不断的改善和可预期的发展速率。由于较强的独立性意识，中国的农民通过生产责任制首先承担了进入自由市场的风险。本文讨论了与肥料施用有关的市场经济原理，并针对维持现有状况的成本比较了从肥料施用中可获得的真实经济效益的机会。　　Thesystemofafreemarketeconomyisessentiallytiedtotheidealofindependentthinking.Participantsareorientatedforprofitanddrivenbyaneedforcontrolovertheirowndestiny.Handinhandwiththeprincipleofeffectivecontrolinthemarketplaceisapersonaldemandforincomestability.Undertherightconditions,thismindsetallowsforcontinualimprovementandapredictablerateofdevelopment.Duetoahighersenseofindependence,farmersinChinahavebeencreditedwithtakingthefirstrisksofventuringintothefreemarketwiththecontractresponsibilitysystem.Thispaperdealswiththeprinciplesofamarketeconomyasitpertainstofertilizerusageandcomparesrealeconomicopportunitiesgainedfromfertilizersagainstthecostsofmaintainingthestatusquo.　　平衡施肥对市场经济的贡献　　BalancedFertilization'sContributiontotheMarketEconomy　　平衡施肥是中国农民取得利益的一个好机会，能够产生一个火花，最终启动创造利润的马达，并有助于达到市场经济的目标。　　BalancedfertilizationisaneconomicopportunityforChina'sfarmersandonecapableofprovidingthesparkthatultimatelywilldrivetheprofit-generatingengineandhelpattainthegoalsofamarketeconomy.　　很明显，众多部门会从充分而平衡的施肥中获益。首先，个体农民能将平衡施肥用于个人投资，创造财富、稳定收入和较大程度地控制生产（图1）。中国农业科学院土壤肥料研究所退休所长林葆教授长期倡导重视所有对作物生长必需的营养元素，以获得持续及高效益的产量。表1给出了林教授有说服力的材料，说明了在63个长期试验中各种无机肥料对多种作物产量的贡献。经林教授计算，对所有试验平均产量的贡献为46.3%，个别作物的例子(即冬小麦和夏玉米)分别为62.1%和49.3%。如果忽视肥料对产量显著而稳定的贡献，就会丧失创收和稳定收入的大好机会。　　Itisevidentthatnumeroussectorsbenefitfromadequateandbalancedfertilizeruse.Firstly,individualfarmersareabletopersonallycapitalizeontheirinvestment,whichcreateswealth,stabilityandalargersenseofcontrol(Figure1).ProfessorLinBao,retiredDirectoroftheSoilandFertilizerInstitute,ChinaAcademyofAgriculturalSciences,hasbeenalong-termproponentofpayingattentiontoallessentialnutrientsforsustained,profitgeneratingyields.TheproofofProfessorLin'sconvictionispresentedinTable1,whichshowsthecontributionofinorganicfertilizerstoavarietyofcropyieldsin63long-termstudies.ProfessorLin\ncalculatedanaverageyieldcontributionof46.3%foralltrialsandsingleexamples(i.e.,winterwheatandsummercorn)werecalculatedtobe62.1%and49.3%,respectively.Byignoringfertilizer'ssignificantandconsistentcontributiontoyield,agreatopportunityforincomegenerationandstabilitywouldbelost.(图：图1平衡施肥对达到自由市场经济目标的益处的描述)(表：表1无机肥料对作物产量的贡献(10年平均值，百分数))年种植方式Yearlycroppingpatterns试验数No.oftrials土壤类型TypeofSoil作物Crops对产量的贡献Contributiontoyield,%10年CV10yearCV双季稻Doublerice22水稻土Paddysoil早稻Earlyrice39.86.5晚稻Laterice40.17.4水田/旱地Paddy/dry-land14黄棕壤Yellow-brown水稻Paddy37.94.2紫色土ChaoSoil旱作稻Dry-land59.915.2两季旱作Twodry-land15潮土DrabSoil小麦Wheat62.715.7玉米Maize49.313.3一季旱作Onedry-land12黑土BlackSoil旱作稻Dry-land34.69.5平均值Average46.38.0注释：资料来源：林葆，1997年LinBao1997.\n　　其次，由施用肥料而导致的农民收入增加已经促进了地区和省级水平上社区经济增长的需要。除对增加个人财富的影响外，由更加集约地管理农业用地所产生的“附带结果”促进了许多省份新市场的形成和乡村工业的发展。商业和经济上的“附带结果”可用下例来解释：人员甲发展了摩托车制造业，就有一群人(乙)(1－100)在全省范围内建立摩托车销售业，同时另一群人(丙)(101－500)会建立机械车间进行维修，还会有一群人(丁)(501－1000)销售燃料供这些摩托车使用。此外，还会有些公司雇佣人员制造轮胎、头盔等。　　Secondly,fertilizerderivedincreasesinfarmerincomeshavecreatedmuchneededgrowthatthecommunity,regionalandprovinciallevels.Besidestheobviousinfluenceofaddedpersonalwealth,thecreationofnewmarketsandthedevelopmentofstrongruralindustriesinmanyprovinceshavebeenattributedto'spin-offs'frommanagingagriculturallandsmoreintensively.(Whatismeantbybusinessandeconomic'spin-off'willhopefullybeexplainedbythefollowingexample:PersonAdevelopsamotorcyclemanufacturingbusiness,PeopleB1-100establishmotorcyclesalesbusinessesthroughouttheprovince.WhilePeopleC101-500setupmechanicshopstorepairthemandPeopleD501-1000sellfueltothosethatboughtandusethemotorcycles.Inaddition,CompaniesX,Y,etc.employpeopleandmanufacturetires,helmets,etc.).　　钾磷研究所/加拿大钾磷研究所(PPI/PPIC)曾通过最高经济产量研究(MEY)，比较传统农作措施与充足平衡施肥措施，研究了在大多数省份肥料对作物生产的贡献。　　PPI/PPIChasstudiedthecontributionoffertilizersinnumerousprovincesthroughmaximumeconomicyield(MEY)researchcomparingtraditionalfarmingpracticestoanadequateandbalancedfertilizationapproachtocropproduction.　　让我们以最近研究获得的一个例子，看一看中国北方玉米和小麦的生产潜力。根据在河北省土壤测试的推荐施肥和传统的农民习惯施肥的直接比较说明，在158个玉米和30个小麦示范中玉米和小麦分别平均增产392公斤/公顷和447公斤/公顷（金继运，1997）。应用河北省玉米和小麦播种面积（中国农业年鉴，1996），推导全省玉米和小麦分别增产897994吨和1117813吨。根据当前的玉米价格(195元/吨)和小麦价格(145元/吨)，仅河北省这种增产的价值就分别达到1.75亿元和1.63亿元以上。　　Asanexample,insightintoNorthernChina'sproductionpotentialofcornandwheathasrecentlybeengained.Adirectcomparisonbetweensoil-testbasedfertilizationandtraditionalfarmerpracticesinHebeiprovincerevealedaverageyieldincreasesof392and447kg/hafor158cornand30wheatdemonstrations,respectively(Jin,1997).Usingprovincial-widecornandwheatplantingareasforHebei(ChinaAgriculturalYearbook,1996),thevaluestranslateintorespectiveproductionimprovementsof897,994tand1,117,813t.Basedoncurrentpricesforcorn(195yuan/t)andwheat(145yuarL/t),thisincreaseinproductionamountstoanextra175,108,830yuanforcornand163,200,698yuanforwheatinHebeiprovincealone.　　在浙江省金华地区，富裕的经济状况高度依赖于持续高产的大豆。肥料试验表明，大豆对施用225公斤/公顷K2O有显著的增产效应（表2）。　　IntheJinhuaregionofZhejiangprovince,theeconomicwellbeingishighlydependentuponsustained,highyieldsoybeanproduction.Fertilizertrialsshowedasignificantpotashresponseinsoybeanupto225kgK2O/ha(Table2).(表：表2不同肥料处理对大豆产量的影响)施肥量Rate(N-P2O5-K2O)产量\Yield比一般措施增产Yieldovercommonpractice与一般措施相比的增产潜力*Productionpotential*overcommonpracticeTonnes公斤/公顷kg/ha(吨)Tonnes一般措施Common1951--\npractice45-112.5-019903927345-112.5-752328376263245-112.5-1502470519363345-112.5-22525415904130注释：*基于金华地区7000公顷大豆面积的估算值*Basedon7000haestimateforsoybeansintheJinhuaregion.PPI/PPIC1997.　　对于金华及邻近的地区，这些结果说明了增产4130吨的生产能力。如果我们把这些结果推广到全省86100公顷大豆（中国农业年鉴，1996）上，总产可达到218780吨。该值超过了当前浙江省大豆生产189000吨的指标。最高产量可增加毛收入超过9500万元（大豆价格4.3元/公斤）。表3给出了所用处理的详细经济分析。　　FortheareaimmediatelysurroundingJinhuatheseresultspointtowardsanabilitytoproduceanadditional4,130t.Ifweexpandtheseresultstotheprovinciallevelthetotalsoybeanoutputfor86,100ha(ChinaAgriculturalYearbook,1996)wouldbe218,780t.ThisamountexceedstheestimateforsoybeanproductioninZhejiangcurrentlysetat189,000t.Thehighestyieldlevelwouldgenerategrossrevenueincreasesofover95millionyuan(Soybeanvaluedat3.2yuan/kg).AmoredetailedeconomicanalysisofthetreatmentsusedispresentedinTable3.(表：表3浙江大豆试验肥料处理的经济分析)处理Treatment(N-P2O5-K2O)投入(元/公顷)Input(yuan/ha)产出(元/公顷)Output(yuan/ha)纯利润Netprofit产投比VCR肥料Fertilizer其他Other总计Total大豆Soybean豆秸Straw总计Total习惯施肥CommonPractice422339038126244749699331811.8345-112.5-0647339040376368764713230951.7745-112.5-75847339042377448894834141041.9745-112.5-1501047339044377904948885244151.9945-112.5-2251248339046388132976910844701.96注释：PPI/PPIC,1997年　　上述处理中的产投比（产投比指肥料增产的价值与获得产量所需肥料成本的比值-译者注）在施N-P2O5-K2O达45-112.5-150公斤/公顷处理时达到最高，为1.99。很明显，肥料投入的增产率服从报酬递减律曲线，随着肥料养分投入量的增加，相应的增产量变小（图3），最后达到对作物没有肥效的一点，此时如果继续增施肥料甚至会由于养分不平衡而减产(BeatonandDibb，1991)。　　Valuetocostratios(VCR4)forthissetoftreatmentspeakat1.99withthe45-112.5-150kgN-P2O5-K2O/hatreatment.Itisapparentthatyieldincreasestofertilizerinputsfollowacurveofdiminishingreturn,wherewithincreasingquantitiesoffertilizernutrient,thecorrespondingyieldincreasesbecomesmaller(Figure3).Eventuallyapointisreachedwherethecropresponseceasesandfurtheradditionsoffertilizermayevendepressyieldsduetonutrientimbalances(BeatonandDibb,1991).\n(图：图3浙江金华地区大豆平衡施肥最大利润分析)　　获得最大利润需要注意投入的成本。收入会随着增产而提高，但相应的成本会使收入的提高不经济。农民要获得最大的利润需要使每吨产品的成本降至最小而总收入最大的范围内经营。在浙江的例子中，施225公斤K2O/公顷能满足这一标准，但150公斤K2O/公顷用量的产量、纯收入和单位成本仅稍低。很明显，农民的习惯施肥成本既高又产出少（图3）。　　Profitmaximizationdemandsthatattentionbepaidtocostofinputs.Revenuesmayincreasewithincreasedyield,howevercorrespondingcostsmaymaketheaddedrevenueuneconomical.Themostprofitablefarmerswilloperateinarangewhereboththecostpertonneofcropproducedwillbeminimizedandrevenuesaremaximized.IntheZhejiangexample,the225kgK2O/hatreatmentmeetsthiscriteria,butyields,netrevenueandcosts/kgwereonlyslightlyloweratthe150kgK2O/harate.Itisapparentthatthecommonpracticeoffarmerswasbothmorecostlyandlessproductive(Figure3).　　江苏省1996年棉花播种面积56.49万公顷，棉花生产占第四位。平均产量994公斤/公顷，故年总产量为56.16万吨皮棉（中国农业年鉴，1996）。棉花试验的产量数据一直说明施用磷肥和钾肥可发挥生产优势。表4的结果比较了这一地区的习惯施肥和较平衡的施肥结果。在高用量配合时，磷肥和钾肥总能获得最好的皮棉产量，这一产量比传统肥料投入量的高87~98公斤/公顷。　　Jiangsuprovinceiscurrentlyrankedfourthincottonproductionwith564,900hasownin1996.Averageareayieldsof994kglint/hagiveJiangsuanannualproductionof561,673t(ChinaAgricultureYearbook,1996).YielddatafromcottontrialsoftenpointtoproductionadvantagesthroughadditionofPandK.ResultsinTable4comparethecommonregionalpracticetoamorebalancedapproach.Whencombinedathighrates,PandKconsistentlyproducedthebestlintyieldswhichwere87to98kg/hamorethanyieldsobtainedwithtraditionalfertilizerinputamounts.(表：表4不同肥料处理的皮棉产量)施肥量Rate(N-P2O5-K2O)产量Yield比习惯施肥增产Yieldovercommonpractice与习惯施肥相比的增产潜力*Productionpotential*overcommonpractice公斤/公顷kg/ha(吨)Tonnes338-180-0906-57-338-180-18010569352,535338-180-27010619855,360338-180-36010508749,146\n338-120-27010205732,199225-75-90963--注释：*根据江苏省棉花播种面积564900公顷估计。*Basedon564,900haestimateforcottonareasowninJiangsuprovince.PPI/PPIC，1997　　据研究报道，1996年6~8月的降水量过高（为531mm，正常年份为159mm），这会导致皮棉对施入肥料的反应有不利的影响。在这种逆境下，棉花开花和结铃会由于营养生长过旺而减少。但是，很明显，即使在这种不良条件下，增加55360吨产量还是可能的。在经济方面，这种增产会增收8.02亿元（皮棉价格14.5元/公斤）。研究表明，江苏棉区80%的土壤缺K或极度缺K,150~225公斤K2O/公顷的肥效很好。如果施用推荐用量的钾肥，预计增产潜力为300公斤/公顷，市场价值为24.48亿元。　　ResearchersreportedabnormallyhighrainfallfromJunetoAugust(i.e.,531mmin1996versusanormalof159mm)andthiscouldhavenegativelyimpactedthelintyieldresponsetoaddedfertilizer.Undersuchconditionscottonfloweringandbollsettingwouldbereducedattheexpenseofexcessivevegetativegrowth.However,itisapparentthatevenundertheseadverseconditionsanextra55,360tofyieldarepossible.Ineconomicterms,thisproductiontranslatesintoanextra802millionyuan.Researchindicatesthat80%ofJiangsu'scottonareaisdeficienttoseverelydeficientinKandwillrespondto150to225kgK2O/ha(PPI/PPIC).Apotentialyieldresponseof300kglint/haisprojectediftheserecommendedamountsofpotashwereused,whichtranslatesintoamarketvalueof2.448billionyuan.　　众多的棉花主产省份报告说皮棉平均产量低，这说明增产的潜力大（表5）。举例来说，表中的安徽省的平均皮棉产量为679公斤/公顷，远低于前面研究试验中概括的产量水平。　　Anumberofmajorcottonproducingprovincesreportlowaveragelintyields,whichpointtoastrongpotentialforgrowth(Table5).Asanexample,Anhui'sprovincialyieldaverageislistedat679kglint/ha,whichisfarbelowtheyieldsobtainedinthepreviouslyoutlinedresearchtrial.(表：表5棉花播种面积及省皮棉产量(中国农业年鉴，1996))省份Province播种面积(公顷)Areaplanted(ha)省平均产量(公斤/公顷)Provincialyieldaverage(kg/ha)河北Hebei700500528安徽Anhui443200679山东Shandong666000706河南Henan1000100769　　安徽省由于养分缺乏造成的棉花生产的萎缩正在引起棉花供应的短缺，最近并威胁着省内的纺织工业。　　ShrinkingcottonproductioninAnhuiprovinceduetonutrientdeficiencyisleadingtoshortagesincottonsuppliesandhasrecentlythreatenedtheprovincialtextileindustry.　　据报道，大多数贵州省的农田土壤上施用氮、磷和钾均有增产效果。举例来说，油菜研究表明了巨大的增产增收潜力。在土壤测试推荐的肥料处理100-140-15公斤P2O5-K2O-B/公顷的基础上，逐个的减去P、K和B在三种土壤上均会造成产量和收入损失（表6和表7）。估计贵州省油菜的平均产量为1314公斤/公顷（中国农业年鉴，1996）。　　ThemajorityoffarmsoilsinGuizhouprovincearereportedtoberesponsivetoN,PandK.Asanexample,researchonrapeseedhasshowngreatpotentialforimprovedyieldandprofit.Basedonasoil-testderivedfertilizertreatmentof100-140-15kgP2O5-K2O-Boron(B)/ha,Table6andTable7showtheyieldandincomelost\ninthreesoiltypeswhenP,KandBaresystematicallyeliminated.TheestimatedaverageyieldforrapeseedinGuizhouis1,314kg/ha(ChinaAgricultureYearbook,1996).(表：表6贵州三种土壤上油菜的产量和施用P、K和B肥)　产量损失(公斤/公顷)Lossinyield,kg/ha最佳处理Optimum-P-K-B黄土水田YellowPaddy1869(1134)(304)(330)黄土旱地YellowUpland1415(303)(870)(140)石灰质旱地LimestoneUpland1530(480)(322)(643)注释：资料来源：尹迪信等，1992Yinetal.(1992)(表：表7贵州三种土壤上施用P、K和B肥与收入的关系)　收入损失(元)Lossinincome,Yuan最佳处理Optimurn-P-K-B黄土水田YellowPaddy2722(1693)(532)(567)黄土旱地YellowUpland1980(424)(1218)(195)石灰质旱地LimestoneUpland2142(655)(451)(901)注释：资料来源：尹迪信等，1992Yinetal.(1992)　　用百分数表示时，低于最佳处理的产量和收入损失高达60%。按所有土类平均，不施P、K和B造成的平均产量损失分别为37%、31%和23%。在贵州40.41万公顷油菜上（中国农业年鉴，1996）产量潜力遭受到每年近三分之一的损失，其经济后果是显著的。在三种土壤上施P，K和B的高投入产出比表明，这些肥料投资会有稳定而显著的回报。　　Expressedonapercentagebasis,yieldandincomelosswasashighas60%withsub-optimalfertilization.Averagingallsoiltypes,eliminationofP,KandBresultedinameanyieldandprofitlossof37%,31%and23%,respectively.Thisyear-after-yearlossofapproximatelyone-thirdoftherapeseedcroppotentialonGuizhou's404,100haproductionarea(ChinaAgricultureYearbook,1996)inflictsasignificanteconomicconsequence.HighVCRratios(Table8)forP,KandBapplicationinallsoiltypesindicateconsistentandhighreturnsforeachfertilizerinvestment.(表：表8三种贵州土壤P、K和B肥投入的回报（用投入产出比表示）)　投入产出比Value-to-costRatioPKB黄土水田Yellowpaddy9.02.937.8黄土旱地YellowUpland2.26.613.0石灰质旱地LimestoneUpland3.52.460.1注释：资料来源：尹迪信等，1992，Yinetal.(1992)　　在贵州通过改善生产增加利润的其他例子有：　　AdditionalGuizhouexamplesofbetterprofitthroughimprovedproductionare:　　1)马铃薯研究表明，施用磷钾肥可增产5%。当前一般的施肥措施是在施16.5吨/公顷有机肥后仅施氮200公斤\n/公顷。　　(1)Researchonpotatoshoweda5%yieldincreasewithPandKfertilization.Currently,thecommonfertilizerpracticeisapplicationof200kgN/haalonewith16.5tmanure/ha.　　2)与传统的农民习惯施肥相比，施用138-120-300公斤N-P2O5-K2O/公顷使西瓜增产24%。　　(2)Comparedtotraditionalfarmerpractice,applicationof138-120-300kgN-P2O5-K2O/haincreasedwatermelonyieldby24%.　　3)施100-100-100公斤N-P2O5-K2O/公顷时辣椒的产量最高，达24吨/公顷，其投入产出比达到10.3（肥料每投入1元可收回10.3元），这种处理是相当经济可行的。　　(3)Inchilipepper,100-100-100kgN-P2O5-K2O/hagavethebestyieldof24t/ha.ThetreatmentprovedtobequiteeconomicallyviablesincetheVCRequated10.3(i.e.,10.3yuanreturnedforeachyuanspentonfertilizer).　　中国不平衡施肥的机会成本　　China'sOpportunityCostofanUnbalancedApproach　　随着时间的推移，忽视充分施用化肥的效益的机会成本在增加，结果对中国土壤资源损害的补救能力在下降。　　Astimeprogresses,theopportunitycostofignoringthebenefitsofadequatefertilizeruseincreaseandtheabilitytorepairdamagestoChina'ssoilresourcesubsequentlydecline.　　林葆教授指出，长期试验表明了对氮肥的依赖性在短期内就是有效的，但随着时间的增长养分资源耗竭的证据越来越明显。养分耗竭使利润循环停滞，阻碍个人、省份和国家经济以及粮食生产的增长(图2)。在上面谈到的农民控制的地方，由于缺少一定的个人利润就会毫无控制。随着时间的推移，忽视充分施用肥料效益的机会成本就会增加，改良土壤质量的能力就会下降，改良的成本也会提高。很明显，中国只依靠单纯施氮肥（甚至氮肥加磷肥）的自给自足不能形成持续的农业。贫穷和不负责任的土地利用是危害中国环境持续性的主要力量。　　ProfessorLinBaohasindicatedthatshort-termexperimentsshowingtherelianceonNfertilizerwereinitiallyeffective,howeverastimeprogressedevidenceofnutrientresourcedepletionbecameclear.Resourcedepletionhelpsstalltheprofitcycleandpreventgrowthinthepersonal,provincialandnationaleconomies,aswellasinfoodproduction(Figure2).Inplaceofthefarmercontrolasmentionedearlier,thereisasenseofnocontrolduetothelackofadefinitepersonalbenefit.Astimeprogresses,theopportunitycostofignoringthebenefitsofadequatefertilizeruseincreaseandtheabilitytorepairsoilqualitydeclinesandthusbecomesmorecostly.Itisapparentthatself-sufficiencythroughnitrogen(orevennitrogenplusphosphate)fertilizationalonewillnotcreatesustainableagricultureinChina.Povertyandirresponsibleland-usearemajorforcesendangeringthesustainabilityofChina'senvironment.\n(图：图2由于保持现状丧失机会的描述)　　表9给出了10年的养分平衡表，比较了20作（一年两季）移走的土壤养分（林葆，1997）。各处理表明只施N肥时土壤P和K库严重耗竭。施N和P而不施K会由于增加NP供应充足生长旺盛的作物的养分需求而使K耗竭加重。即使在稳定施K时大量的K移走说明了土壤的供应能力极低以及必须依赖不断的施钾肥。　　Table9presentsa10yearnutrientbalancesheetcomparingplantnutrientsremovedby20crops(doublecropping)(LinBao,1997).ThetreatmentsindicateseriousdepletionofsoilPandKreservesthroughNfertilizationalone.AddingNandPwithoutKworsensKdepletionbyincreasingnutrientdemandbythemorevigorous,NP-nourishedcrop.EvidenceoflargeKremovalevenwithsteadyKadditionshighlightsaverylowsupplycapacityofthesoilandthenecessaryrelianceoncontinuouspotashfertilization.(表：表9河南郑州1981~1990年间20季作物的养分平衡表)处理Treatment投入，公斤/公顷Input,kg/ha产出，公斤/公顷Output,kg/ha收支，公斤/公顷Balance,kg/haNP2O5K2ONP2O5K2ONP2O5K2OCheck0008365311,155-838-531-1,155N2,400002,1158732,085285-873-2,085NP2,4001,20002,2591,1082,48114192-2,481NPK2,4001,2001,2002,3861,1362,8591464-1,659Manure7366608401,2067421,670-470-82-830MN3,1366608402,3881,1782,505748-518-1,665MNP3,1361,8608402,5351,3022,751602558-1,911MNPK3,1361,8602,0402,5441,2703,260592590-1,220注释：机肥料的养分用量(每作公斤/公顷)Nutrientrateofinorganicfertilizers(kg/haeachcrop):N-P2O5-K2O120-60-60有机肥料的养分用量(每作公斤/公顷)Nutrientrateoforganicfertilizer(kg/haeachcrop):N-P2O5-K2O31-33-42　　每年施用有机粪肥与无机肥料结合可减缓土壤P和K库的“开采”。但是很明显，全部依靠有机肥还会造成严重的养分耗竭。在这种情况下有可能出现N和P的积累，而土壤K量仍会大大降低。此外，随着有机肥的施用，就会出现较大的潜在危害环境的N积累问题。\n　　Supplementinginorganicfertilizerwithannualapplicationsofmanurereducedthe'mining'ofPandKreservesinsoil.However,itisobviousthattotalrelianceonmanurealsoleadstoseriousnutrientdepletion.InthiscaseitisapparentthatNandPbuildupwaspossible,butsoilKquantitieswerestillgreatlyreduced.Aswell,additionalquestionsareraisedregardingthelargeandpotentiallyenvironmentallydamagingNaccumulationsobservedwithmanureadditions.　　小结　　Summary　　用历史的眼光看，农业产出曾经并将继续是中国国民经济不可分割的一部分，因为她涉及三分之二的人口。另外三分之一的人口也通过这部分人对物品和服务的购买力而强烈依赖于这种农业“后盾”。因此，维持了强壮的农业后，才能出现非农业部门的持续增长。很明显，改善养分投入是中国农业持续发展的关键。市场经济是动态的，不断变化的环境会不断地影响农民获得最大利润的投入水平。尽管如此，平衡施肥对作物产量、生产价值和纯利润的影响为中国的市场经济提供了一个不容忽视的巨大机会。　　Historically,agriculturaloutputhasandwillcontinuetobeanintegralpartofChina'snationaleconomysinceitemploystwo-thirdsofthepopulation.Theremainingone-thirdofChina'spopulationisstronglydependentonthisagricultural'back-bone'throughitspurchasingofgoodsandservices.Therefore,sustainedgrowthinnon-agriculturalrelatedsectorsonlyappearsafterastrongagriculturalsectorismaintained.ItisapparentthatimprovementsinnutrientinputsarekeytothecontinuingdevelopmentofChina'sagriculturalsector.Marketeconomiesaredynamicandchangingconditionswillconstantlyinfluencethelevelofinputsthataremostprofitabletofarmers.However,balancedfertilization'sinfluenceovercropyield,valueandnetprofitsprovidesanopportunitytoChina'smarketeconomythatistoolargetoignore.　　为了实现市场经济的目标，必须存在对利润、稳定性和个人控制自我命运的要求。充足的施肥增加利润，提高收入的稳定性，这些是为将来创造自信和较大机会所需的个人利益。个人利益的正效应在地区、省份和国家水平上被扩大。在采用传统措施的地方，有许多省平均产量低和投资回报低的例子。在生产落后的地区，以农业为基础的重要支柱工业的发展就会受到阻碍。长时间的不平衡施肥措施是土壤资源退化，并产生一个生产潜力越来越低的恶性循环。　　Toachievethegoalsofamarketeconomy,ademandforprofit,stabilityandcontrolovereachperson'sdestinymustexist.Adequatefertilizeruseliftsprofitsandstabilizesincome,whicharepersonalbenefitsrequiredtocreateconfidenceandlargeropportunitiesforthefuture.Personalbenefitsaremagnifiedgivingpositiveaffectsatregional,provincialandnationallevels.Manyexamplesoflowprovincialyieldaveragesandlowreturnsoninvestmentexistwheretraditionalfertilizationpracticesareused.Wherepoorproductionexists,growthinimportantagriculturallybasedsupportindustriesisprevented.Continualunbalancedfertilizationpracticesdegradethesoilresourcebaseandcreateadownwardspiraloflessandlessproductionpotential.　　References　　Beaton,J.D.andD.W.Dibb(1991).Economicsoffertilizeruse,Balancedfertilizersituationreport-ChinaMeeting,Jan.9th,1991,BeijingChinaAgriculturalYearbook(1996).　　Jin,J.(1997).PPI/PPICInterpretativeSummaries.\n　　Li,Y.(1995).SouthChinaMorningPostOctober16th,1995　　Lin,B.(1997).Significanceofbalancedfertilizationbasedonlong-termfertilizationexperiments.BetterCropsInternational,Vol.11,No.1.,pp.8-11.　　Yin,D.,Q.Zhu,L.ZenandX.Xiao(1992).　　Phosphorus,PotassiumandBoronFertilizationincreasesrapeseedyields.BetterCropsInternational,Dec.Vol.,PP.16-17.